The 2026 U.S. Gas Market: Insights From Our Natural Gas Consulting Team in Texas

The U.S. natural gas market is entering a period of historic growth. Production is heading to record highs, new pipelines are being established to move gas across the country, and the Gulf Coast is becoming the most strategically important corridor in the entire energy system. What does it mean for company owners? What do you need to consider to keep the energy expenses under control, and to tackle the opportunities arising? Today, our natural gas consulting team wants to share some insights to consider before making important decisions.

Record Production Is on the Way

The EIA’s February 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects U.S. natural gas marketed production will average 120.8 Bcf/d in 2026 and climb to a record 122.3 Bcf/d in 2027 — a 2% increase year over year. That’s not a spike. It’s a sustained, supply-driven growth trend fueled by three key regions: Appalachia, the Permian Basin, and Haynesville, which together account for roughly 69% of all forecast U.S. production over the next two years.

Each region is growing for a different reason. Haynesville, straddling eastern Texas and Louisiana, adds 1.2 Bcf/d in 2026 and 1.6 Bcf/d in 2027 — driven by rising gas prices and direct proximity to Gulf Coast LNG export terminals. The Permian Basin in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico contributes 1.4 Bcf/d in 2026, mostly from associated gas produced alongside oil. Even as oil prices are expected to fall to $53/barrel in 2026 and $49/barrel in 2027, increasing gas-to-oil ratios are still pushing overall gas output higher. Appalachia, the largest single domestic source at roughly 32% of Lower 48 output since 2016, grows more modestly — 0.3 Bcf/d in 2026 and 0.5 Bcf/d in 2027 — after the Mountain Valley Pipeline finally received FERC authorization in June 2024, relieving years of capacity constraints.

The Pipeline System Updated to Match

Record production only matters if the infrastructure exists to move it. In 2025, 6.3 Bcf/d of new pipeline capacity entered service in the U.S., and 85% of it — 5.3 Bcf/d — was directed into the South Central region, including the Gulf Coast; producers need a path from the wellhead to export terminals, and midstream companies are building it in real time.

The two largest projects connect Haynesville directly to the Gillis Hub in southeastern Louisiana. Williams Companies brought the Louisiana Energy Gateway online at 1.8 Bcf/d, while Momentum Midstream added another 1.7 Bcf/d through its New Generation Gas Gathering system. That’s 3.5 Bcf/d of new Haynesville-to-coast capacity added in a single year — perfectly timed to absorb the production growth the EIA is now forecasting through 2027.

LNG Exports Are the Demand Engine

The reason the Gulf Coast is attracting so much new infrastructure is obvious: LNG export demand is enormous and continues growing. The Evangeline Pass Expansion (1.1 Bcf/d) and East Lateral Xpress (0.3 Bcf/d) both came online specifically to feed Plaquemines LNG, which shipped its first cargo in 2025. Golden Pass LNG in Port Arthur, Texas, is still ramping up and will require roughly 2.55 Bcf/d at full capacity.

Natural gas prices are expected to rise from $3.52/MMBtu in 2025 to $4.31/MMBtu in 2026 and $4.38/MMBtu in 2027, which reinforces the economics of continued drilling — especially in Haynesville, where deeper wells are expensive but viable at these price levels. Higher prices combined with direct pipeline access to LNG terminals make the Gulf Coast corridor the most commercially attractive position in the U.S. gas market right now.

What the Regulatory Landscape Looks Like

About 65% of the new 2025 pipeline capacity is intrastate, operating within a single state and outside FERC jurisdiction. Our natural gas consulting experts point out that this is an intentional move to keep things moving faster; since intrastate projects have fewer regulatory hurdles, which means faster timelines from permit to operation.

What This Means If You Own a Business That Runs on Natural Gas

Most business owners don’t follow pipeline construction reports or EIA forecasts, and they shouldn’t have to (For some people, it can get boring). However, with everything working as fast as it does nowadays, ignoring the market is not an option. If you do, you will be reminded when your energy bills, supply contracts, and operating costs arrive.

Our natural gas consulting team points out that the biggest mistake businesses make in a rising-price environment like the one we are experiencing is waiting. When prices are climbing, the companies that locked in supply agreements earlier almost always come out ahead of those that kept buying on the spot market. 

Right now, with record production forecast through 2027 and abundant supply still available, there is a real window to negotiate favorable long-term contracts before LNG export demand tightens available volumes further. That window will not stay open indefinitely — export terminals like Plaquemines LNG and Golden Pass are still ramping up, and as they reach full capacity, they will absorb significant portions of domestic supply.

Understanding what kind of contract structure fits your business — fixed price, index-based, or a hybrid — is not something most business owners have the bandwidth to evaluate on their own. Getting that decision right with the help of a natural gas consulting team is one of the smartest ways to protect your bottom line over the next two to three years.

➡ Read more: Commercial Energy Consultants’ Advice on Reducing Energy Spending

The Opportunity Side of the Equation

Rising prices and infrastructure growth are not purely bad news for businesses. More pipelines mean more supply routes, and more supply routes mean more competition among suppliers for your business. Maybe it’s the moment to negotiate better terms than the ones they could have two or three years ago.

The businesses that will feel the most pain in 2026 and 2027 are the ones that renew contracts on autopilot, assume their current supplier is still the best option, or simply don’t know what questions to ask. The ones that come out ahead will be the ones that treat their energy procurement as a strategic decision, not an administrative one. That’s precisely what a qualified natural gas consulting team helps you do.

Your Natural Gas Consulting Experts in Texas

Onyx Power & Gas offers clear, practical guidance on the best model for your needs. We can help you determine the most suitable gas strategy, equipment sizing, and configuration for your business in Texas. Working with professionals who specialize in the sector allows you to benefit from a more personalized and informed service.

Our experts take the time to listen to your concerns and understand your goals, then tailor their recommendations to your expectations. Contact us to explore how we can help your company implement complete natural gas and biomethane compression projects, with end‑to‑end advice designed to improve your efficiency and profitability

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