In 2026, oil volatility stopped being a distant market story and became a real operating risk for businesses in Texas and beyond. For companies that rely on transportation, fuel, or heavy logistics, price swings are no longer just a financial headline; they can affect margins, contracts, and day-to-day planning. Our business energy consultants in Texas are examining these market shifts and what they could mean for business costs and strategy.
2025: The Oversupply and Falling Prices Era
Let’s start with the prequel: 2025. The global production of crude oil and liquids exceeded consumption for most of that year. Generating consistent stock builds and steady downward pressure on Brent crude.
Brent averaged about 69 dollars per barrel in 2025, dropping from around 79 dollars in January to roughly 63 dollars by December. The lowest monthly average since early 2021.
At the same time, OPEC+ raised production targets and non‑OPEC producers continued to add barrels, pushing implied stock builds above 2.5 million barrels per day in the last two quarters of 2025.
The Volatility Pivot: Lessons from an Unpredicted Quarter
At the beginning of 2026, prices were relatively low, with plenty of supply and 2025 inventories full. However, with just a roll of the dice, everything changed. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted key production and export routes, triggering a market earthquake.
Related content: The Strait of Hormuz Is Closed. Onyx Power & Gas Specialists React to the Global LNG Markets
How bad was it? Brent front‑month futures started 2026 at about 61 dollars per barrel and ended the first quarter at 118 dollars. In inflation‑adjusted terms, it was the largest quarterly increase since EIA began tracking the series in 1988. The Brent–WTI (West Texas Intermediate) spread widened markedly, peaking at 25 dollars per barrel on March 31, as international benchmarks reacted more violently than U.S. prices.
All of this was quickly translated into refined products that businesses feel directly: gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The colder‑than‑normal weather in the U.S. Northeast, tighter trucking capacity, and less renewable diesel supplementing supplies amplified the demand.
By March 30, average U.S. retail gasoline reached about 3.99 dollars per gallon, while average on‑highway diesel prices climbed to roughly 5.40 dollars per gallon. Those were the highest levels in more than two years, with distillate fuels (diesel and heating oil) and jet fuel rising even faster than gasoline.
Strategic Inventories and the U.S. Position
One reason the U.S. did not feel the full brunt of the shock as strongly as some other regions is its strategic and commercial inventory position.
According to EIA’s analysis of global stockpiles, China, the United States, and Japan held the largest strategic oil inventories in 2025, with China’s combined strategic and commercial stocks approaching 1.4 billion barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve had about 413–415 million barrels at the end of 2025, within a total capacity of 714 million barrels.
SPR stocks were around 409 million barrels as of April 10, 2026, following a small build and before any sizable releases associated with the 2026 disruption. These inventories, along with OECD commercial stocks, give policymakers tools to respond to severe supply outages, smoothing some of the volatility that would otherwise hit U.S. refiners and consumers.
However, they are a buffer, not a cure. The Q1 price action shows that even with substantial inventories, geopolitical shocks can still push prices far outside the “average” path business energy consultants and planners expect.
A Glimpse of Light in the Future?
Current projections suggest that average oil prices in 2026 and 2027 could end up lower than 2025 levels, because global supply is still expected to exceed demand and inventories are likely to keep building.
A big portion of recent inventory growth has come from strategic stockpiling and increased storage in emerging markets, along with higher commercial stock levels in developed economies. As storage tanks and floating storage fill, the rising marginal cost of holding additional barrels generally caps prices and eventually slows production growth.
It sounds reassuring, right? In practice, early 2026 shows that even if the average price over the year comes in near those projections, the path can still include a violent shock that dramatically affects everyone’s performance.
How Business Energy Consultants in Texas Protect Your Company
If a big part of your business has to do with transportation, you will feel every penny that diesel and gasoline cost. When prices behave like they did earlier this year, a trucking fleet, construction crew, or service company can watch its fuel bill go to the roof in a single quarter, and suddenly that “profitable” fixed‑price contract does not look so good anymore. One bad spike, without the right surcharges or pass‑throughs in place, is enough to wipe out most of your margin.
That is why building your 2026–2027 plan around a single “best guess” is so dangerous. Your real exposure is not the average. It is the weeks or months when prices briefly live at 90 or 110 dollars, and you happen to be renewing a contract, ramping up a project, or running your fleet flat out. So the real question for an owner or CFO is no longer “What do I think oil prices will be?” The better question is, “What happens to my business if I’m wrong?”
Onyx Business Energy Consultants in Texas: About Measures Businesses Can Take to Mitigate Risks
Given the aforementioned context, we believe that businesses need to be proactive in maneuvering within these market changes by adopting studied measures from specialists.
At Onyx Power & Gas, our expertise in customized procurement and risk management solutions offers tailored insights and actionable strategies to help partners diminish energy costs and streamline resource allocation. Thus, partnering with expert business energy consultants provides businesses with the opportunity to become more competitive, resilient, and prepared for long-term growth.
